Prediction of non-brazilian crude steel production using holt-winters method
International Journal of Development Research
Prediction of non-brazilian crude steel production using holt-winters method
Received 04th September, 2017; Received in revised form 15th October, 2017; Accepted 26th November, 2017; Published online 30th December, 2017
Weslley Silva Ferreira et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
The objective of this study is to estimate the monthly production in tons of crude steel in Brazil from January to May 2017, on the basis of production data from January 1980 to December 2016, made available by IPEADATA, using smoothing time series techniques, and the additive and multiplicative models of Holt Winters, arriving at the conclusion that the one most appropriate to the dataset under analysis is the model with linear tendency and multiplicative seasonality, that according to the selection criterion that is the one that presents the lowest average absolute absolute error, in which its value was estimated at approximately 3.97%, from which it can forecast the monthly quantity of crude steel produced for the five subsequent periods.
