Precipitation trend in the municipality of cabaceiras (Northeast of Brazil)

Introduction: The analysis of trends in historical rainfall series is important to verify the interannual and decadal climatic variability in order to identify how climate changes can modulate these temporal patterns of variability. Objective: The study aims to present a historical temporal distribution and future trend of rainfall in the municipality of Cabaceiras (Paraíba, Brazil), using a historical series. Materials and methods: The temporal distribution of the historical series and the rainfall trend was studied with linear regression and measures of central tendency and dispersion of the monthly and annual rainfall index. Results: It was verified that the median is the measure of central tendency most likely to occur. The rainy season occurs between February and July, with an average value of 278.9 mm (82.5% of the annual precipitation). The months of maximum rainfall occur between March and April and those with the lowest rainfall indexes center in the months of October and November. Conclusion: The trend of greater variability of precipitation is centered between the months of February to June, which has high rainfall rates for the region. The smaller pluviometry indexes are centered between the months of October and December, which has low rainfall indexes.