Governance system, process automation and risk analysis of the cva

The development of simulation models, that realistically represent the regulatory/ commercial environment in which the company is inserted, is necessary for it to understand the behavior of some variables needed for decision making. In particular, this work intends to focus on the “A” Portion of the Item Variation Account (Conta de Variação de Itens da Parcela “A” – CVA) has shown significant values for the distributors, mainly due to the increased participation of availability contracts in their portfolios and the systemic conditions presented in recent years, with a significant increase in the dispatch of thermal power plants. In some months, CVA values even exceed the company's remuneration through Portion “B”. Based on this understanding, this work aims to develop a methodology and tool for the simulation and projection of the CVA in different accounting periods (tariff year, calendar year, month, day and hour) and for different scenarios of systemic conditions, with the calculation of risk metrics and estimating events in the short term market (MCP). To do this, an initial research will be conducted to identify the entire accounting flow and the tariff bases used by ANEEL, in order to identify the factors involved and perform a mathematical modeling of the tariff calculation system. In sequence, with the obtaining of such files through the responsible agents, related to a distribution system operator - in this case, NDB - an import and interpretation structure is created, resulting in a database that will serve as an input to the calculator engine that will carry out the projection of costs associated with CVA.