Ipen radiopharmaceutical market trends: an approach to system dynamics

The Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares (IPEN) is today responsible for providing radiopharmaceuticals for 80% of nuclear medicine procedures in Brazil. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of different radiopharmaceutical demands on IPEN production. The methodology used in this study is based on the system dynamics simulation paradigm, combined with empirical data obtained from the institutions and regulatory authorities. The results from the simulations suggest that the IPEN's response to different demands depends on how it balances policies acting on the supply and demand for the resources. Sustainable and long-term management of this market requires active monitoring to support events caused by changes in demand. This study contributes to the systems dynamics and also to the radiopharmaceutical management literature, presenting an integrative model to evaluate the resilience of a specific market. Although there are previous studies on this subject in other countries, the present one focuses on the role that IPEN plays in this market and integrates several variables in a simulation process to understand the market as a whole. For this reason, this work is original in the area of radiopharmaceuticals.